The wider war across the Middle East long predicted may now be upon us.
A disputed rocket attack on Syrian territory in the Golan Heights – illegally occupied by Israel since 1967 – killed a dozen children while playing football.
Israel has blamed Hezbollah for the attack. Hezbollah has in turn denied responsibility. There is speculation that the missile might have been misfiring Israeli munitions.
Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging rocket fire and, in Israel’s case, aerial bombardment too, across the Lebanese border since the onset of the Gaza crisis last October.
And that is the critical point. The conflict along the Lebanese border has been exacerbated and prolonged by the genocidal assault on Gaza’s Palestinians by Israel.
Hezbollah has made it clear that it will cease attacks on Israel when peace is restored to Gaza. Israel is, however, threatening an escalation of the war into Lebanon, alongside its indefinite continuation in Gaza.
Apart from any other considerations, war is the only way Israeli premier Netanyahu can see for continuing in office. Peace, however precarious, would likely precipitate his downfall.
So the deaths in Golan serve his purposes. Israel is itching for an invasion of southern Lebanon, something it has done several times over the course of its history.
And there is the danger of the wider war. Hezbollah is a far more formidable military force than Hamas, capable of inflicting enormous damage on the Israeli armed forces. It is also supported by Iran.
Already the Houthis in Yemen are supporting the Palestinians militarily, with Britain bombing Yemen in Israel’s support. An Israel-Hezbollah clash could directly draw in the USA and Iran, setting the whole region aflame, with Britain deeply implicated.
This points to the urgency of the central demand of the solidarity movement – an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza. Only the cessation of hostilities there, allowing desperately needed aid to reach the beleaguered Palestinian survivors, can start a process of de-escalation.
The British government has, of course, backed Israel throughout the conflict, without regard to the massive loss of Palestinian civilian lives.
Since taking office, Keir Starmer has modified Tory policy in two respects. First, it has restored funding to UNRWA, the United Nations agency assisting Palestinian refugees. It is likely that the Sunak government would have done this too – only the USA has now failed to do so.
Second, it has withdrawn British objections to the International Criminal Court seeking arrest warrants for Netanyahu and the Israeli Defence Minister on war crimes charges. This has so upset Israel’s supporters that the Chief Rabbi has demanded a meeting with Starmer to lodge a protest.
The next decision is about British arms sales to Israel. Foreign Secretary David Lammy will shortly have to decide whether to ban some or all of British military exports to the aggressor.
He may try to walk a middle line by maintaining sales of “defensive” equipment while blocking arms which could be used in the Gaza genocide.
These concessions are undoubtedly due to the mass pressure sustained over the last nine months by the movement in solidarity with Palestine, including by Stop the War.
They also surely owe something to the fact that the Gaza issue cost Labour several seats at the General Election, and nearly lost it several more. That, too, is a consequence of the mass movement’s campaigning.
So that pressure must be maintained more than ever. The British government must apply real diplomatic and political pressure for an immediate ceasefire. It should ban ALL arms sales to Israel.
It must halt all military operations in support of Israel, including the bombing of Yemen, and the use of RAF bases in Cyprus.
And it should proceed to immediately recognise a Palestinian state, as has long been Labour policy.
To keep that pressure on, join the national demonstration in London on Saturday and give Starmer and Lammy that message.