Mojave unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on the flight deck of HMS Prince of Wales.
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As we reach the tenth anniversary of the deployment of UK armed forces to counter ISIS in Iraq and Syria – known officially as Operation Shader – many may well be surprised at the milestone, thinking that the conflict had long ended.
Indeed both Iraq and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) declared military victory over ISIS (or ‘Daesh’ as the group is sometimes called) more than five years ago in March 2019 when the last of the territory held by the group was overrun. Most nations that engaged in airstrikes against ISIS, including Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands and Canada, have ended their air operations.
However, in the five years since the territorial defeat of ISIS, UK fighter aircraft and drones continue to undertake almost daily military flights over Iraq and Syria alongside the US, with airstrikes continuing albeit on a much more infrequent level. The UK’s most recent drone strike – targeting an individual in Syria – took place in June 2024, nine years and nine months after the UK’s first Operation Shader strike.
While remnants of ISIS continue to exist and the group remains a serious threat to the people of Iraq including undertaking sporadic terrorist attacks there, they are no longer the military force that they once were. ISIS in Iraq and Syria (as opposed to those in Europe who have pledged allegiance to the group) currently appears to pose little threat to the UK.
However, as the tenth anniversary of the ongoing deployment approaches there is seemingly little political appetite, in either the US or the UK, to bring it to an end. Importantly, with few ‘boots on the ground’ there is the distinct absence of any public campaign ‘to end the war – bring troops home’ as there has been for other major military deployments.
In the US, a recent poll found that less than 30% of public even knew that US troops were still stationed in Syria. Currently, there are around 900 US troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq, with an estimated 100 British troops in Iraq alongside an unknown number of British Special Forces troops in Syria and Iraq. US and UK aircraft/drones and their crews, which continue to operate over Iraq and Syria, are based outside of the countries.
Managed Perception: We Only Kill Bad Guys
Lack of public and media attention to the ongoing military operation is in no small part due to the lack of UK military casualties and the perception that the UK has undertaken a ‘precision bombing’ campaign with almost no civilian casualties.
Despite more than 4,300 UK air strikes, many of them in heavily populated areas, the UK insists that there has only been one civilian casualty. While many, including military officers, journalists and casualty recording organisations, have been scornful of these claims, the management of the perception of the impact of the bombing campaign has clearly worked.
On the ground in Iraq and Syria the story is very different, with multiple civilian deaths linked to UK airstrikes. Overall, Airwars estimates that 8,000 – 14,000 civilians died from Coalition bombing in Iraq and Syria – a huge human toll. However, while glad to see the back of ISIS, resentment at presence of western forces on the ground – and in the air – grows.
The US drone assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani outside Baghdad airport in January 2020 sparked an outpouring of anger and outrage, with the Iraqi parliament passing a motion demanding the expulsion of US forces from Iraq. When the Iraqi president pushed for a timetable for a withdrawal of forces, the US flatly refused. Instead, in December 2021, the US announced that the Coalition had ended combat operation and was now engaged in an ‘advise, assist and enable’ role. However, the same number of troops remain on the ground and aircraft remain in the skies.
Mission Creep
Here in the UK, the ongoing military operation now gets very little attention either in parliament or the media. In May 2024, the Lib Dem defence spokesperson, Richard Forde MP, mildly suggested in the House of Commons that as UK forces deployed for Operation Shader had been used instead to counter an Iranian attack on Israel, this deserved at least a debate. The reply from the (then) Defence Minister was:
“It seems to me to be the settled view that Operation Shader is a good thing, and I do not sense any appetite for a parliamentary debate among colleagues across the Benches in this House.”
Although there is now a new government, seemingly the attitude to this ongoing military deployment remains the same. For those with long memories, this is exactly the type of foreign policy groupthink that the Chilcot Report warned against.
While the aim of the mission is ostensibly to aid Iraq forces in maintaining security in light of the threat from ISIS, the UK – following the lead of the US – appears to see the ongoing deployment as a way of countering Iranian and Russian influence and supporting its political and commercial interests in the region. Militarily, the deployment also enables RAF personnel to gain operational experience in ‘projecting military power’.
Reduced Transparency
Over the past two years there has also been greatly reduce transparency about Operation Shader. While the MoD had been happy to provide statistical information about the on-going operation to enable MPs and NGOs to have some oversight of the deployment, in January 2023 the MoD began to refuse to answer such Freedom of Information requests. Alongside this MoD ministers have begun to argues that as an “intelligence capability”, information about Reaper can simply be withheld.
While some will no doubt argue that the UK’s ongoing air and drone deployment in the Middle East under Operation Shader is pragmatic and sensible given the ongoing volatility in the region, such an open-ended deployment, with increasingly vague aims is a serious risk. Just in the last months, for example, we have seen UK forces deployed as part of Operation Shader being drawn into a military confrontation between Israel and Iran while UK forces in the region have undertaken strikes against Houthi forces in Yemen following their attacks in response to Israeli aggression in Gaza. Being drawn into further into such military confrontations appear increasingly likely.
Many in the region do not see the UK’s ongoing military deployment as aiding their security, but rather as provocative and threatening, aimed at ensuring western dominance of the Middle East. The longer Operation Shader continues, the more likely it will be seen as a ‘Forever War’.
UK Drone Strikes & the Security Services
In addition, there have been increasing signs that UK security and intelligence agencies are beginning to follow their US counterparts, the CIA, down the road of direct involvement in lethal drone assassination operations.
The MoD insisted that the 2015 drone strike that killed Reyaad Khan in Syria was not part of Op Shader, the name for military operation in Iraq and Syria, possibly indicating that it was a security service-led operation. Subsequently, the MoD has refused to say whether further Reaper drone missions have occurred outside the context of Operation Shader. At a Freedom of Information Tribunal on the issue, MoD witnesses insisted that “ambiguity” about such operations was needed. Meanwhile, at least two other UK drone strikes in Syria – in 2021 and 2022 – have all the hallmarks of intelligence-led targeted killing operations. If these suspicions are correct, such operations should be ended. Secretive and unaccountable civilian agencies should not be undertaking lethal military-type operations as it is simply not possible to have the appropriate level of public and parliamentary oversight.
An Opportunity
The tenth anniversary of Operation Shader should be seen as the milestone that it is and the opportunity taken to have a serious discussion about the UK’s relationship with Iraq and the wider Middle East.
ISIS is no longer the existential threat that it once was to Iraq. Instead it is the growing tensions between the US and Iran as well as climate change – including incredibly high temperatures and water scarcity – that pose a serious threat to the people of Iraq. Rather than spending hundreds of millions on an on-going military deployment with increasingly unclear aims, the UK should instead be supporting Iraq to build its own economic, climate and human security. Such a strategy, rather than attempting to engage in a modern version of the ‘great game’, has the added advantage of likely contributing towards building real peace and security in the region.
To that end, having reached the milestone of a decade, the UK should join Denmark (2016), Canada (2016), Australia (2017), Netherlands (2019) and Belgium (2021) who have all ended their armed air operations over Iraq and Syria, and bring Operation Shader to an end.
Source: Drone Wars UK